Food is the most important thing for people, and food is closely related to human health. However, in recent years, food crises such as vegetables, fruits and fruits with high pesticide residues, and Turbot fish with carcinogenic substances have made China's food safety issue more and more important. Organic agriculture, which is committed to food safety, has many problems at present, but some analysts of Zero2IPO Investment Bank believe that organic agriculture is a sunrise industry and there are investment opportunities.
1、 Overview of the development of organic agriculture
1) Overview of global organic agriculture development
According to the statistics of IFOAM, the organic food market has maintained an annual growth rate of 20% - 30% in the past decade. In 2007, the global market size of organic food was 46 billion US dollars, and IFOAM predicted that by 2010, the global market size of organic food would be 100 billion US dollars. The main consumption markets of organic food are the United States and Europe. The United States is the largest organic food consumption market in the world. In 2007, the sales revenue of organic food and organic beverage was about 20 billion dollars.
As the largest organic food market in the world, the development of the United States has reference significance for evaluating the development potential of China's organic industry.
2) Overview of organic agriculture development in China:
China is a large agricultural country with the largest number of farmers and agricultural area in the world.
Organic agriculture began to rise in China in the 1980s, which is a relatively new industry. According to the statistics of the China Bureau of Statistics, by the end of 2006, about 2300 enterprises in China had obtained organic food certification from 31 different certification bodies, with an organic certification area of 2.1 million hectares and an output of 2.8 million tons; The conversion area is 1.1 million hectares and the output is 1 million tons; The collection area is 2.08 million hectares and the output is 50000 tons. The annual average growth of total production is 30% - 50%.
Organic food is a pure natural food with strict production standards. China's national standard for organic products stipulates that annual crops need a 24 month conversion period and perennial crops need a 36 month conversion period.
At present, China's organic food mainly includes:
1. Fresh and processed fruits and vegetables
2. Cereals, seeds and kernels
4. Bee products, nuts, edible fungi
5. Egg and meat fish
2、 Analysis of influencing factors of industry development
In the production process of organic crops, due to the inability to use chemical synthetic pesticides, hormones or transgenic technology, compared with ordinary crops, organic crops:
1. Higher cost organic fertilizer is required;
2. Long growth cycle;
3. Higher management cost and more labor demand;
4. Higher planting technology is required;
5. During the 2-3 year conversion period, the output decreased and the cost increased, but the selling price failed to increase, increasing the production input;
These factors lead to the price of organic food being several times higher than that of ordinary food, which makes the consumption of organic food mainly concentrated in pregnant women, high-income people and other minority groups. In some aspects, organic food and luxury goods industry are somewhat similar. At present, the development of organic agriculture in China is mainly in the economically developed coastal areas.
Analysts of Zero2IPO Group believe that the main factors affecting the development of China's organic industry are:
1. Per capita disposable income, the increase of disposable income makes the consumption group of organic food expand day by day;
In the details of urban and rural household consumption expenditure in 2008, the top three consumption types were food, education and health care, accounting for 34.0%, 11.5% and 10.6% of the total expenditure respectively.
2. The negative news of ordinary food in the food industry has increased and the health awareness has increased;
3. The development of technology reduces the cost of organic products;
4. As a labor-intensive industry, it is greatly affected by labor price;
5. Land price factor, there is a certain competition between industry and agriculture, and the development of industry makes the land cost increasingly high;
6. Industry specifications;
3、 Investment in organic agriculture:
It is believed that no one disagrees with the health concept of organic food, but its high price makes many people choose other food, which is also the main reason that restricts the development of the organic industry. Even in developed countries, after decades of development, the sales of organic food only accounted for 2% of the total food industry sales, while in China, the figure was even less than 1%. Organic food enterprises have developed slowly, even the invested enterprises have not developed rapidly.
1) Some investment cases:
2) Investment opportunities in organic agriculture
Organic agriculture is an emerging agriculture, which can be said to be a luxury in food. Even in the United States, the market share of organic food is only 2% after so many years of development. However, as a developing country, China's organic food market will not develop significantly in the next few years due to its consumption level. We believe that there is a bottleneck in the development of organic enterprises that only face the domestic market. It is too early for China to develop a successful overseas organic food sales channel model like wholesale.
Compared with the industrial characteristics of organic agriculture, China has a huge planting area and unique natural resources; Rich and cheap labor. These make our organic agriculture have a great congenital competitive advantage compared with foreign organic agriculture. We believe that opportunities lie in large-scale organic agricultural production enterprises, organic fertilizer production enterprises, etc.